Over a month ago, this guy said this:
Just run my codes for catchers rating. The final number on Jose Molina’s framing is 50 runs saved!
— Max Marchi (@MarchiMax) October 5, 2012
Then Ben Lindbergh at Baseball Prospectus wrote an article about it.
At first, I didn’t believe it. So I did the math – or at least, multiplied and divided some possibly relevant numbers together. Now I’m not so sure.
Here’s my rough estimate of what it would take for Molina to save 50 runs by framing pitches well:
709.2 innings caught * ~16 pitches per inn
= 11355 pitches
= 227 pitches per run
Assuming .161 runs saved by turning a ball into a strike (see here), Molina would need to turn a ball into a strike about once every 36 or 37 pitches to save 50 runs in a season (with 710 innings caught).
1) Is my math right?
2) Is that conceivable? Seems to me that it could be.