Some Hall of Fame Thought Experiments

Not much to say here. Simply trying to get a sense of everyone’s motivations for their beliefs regarding the Hall of Fame and performance enhancing drugs. I can think of many more interesting examples, but 10 should suffice for now. Let me know if you have any questions.

1) We know that Drug A 100% guarantees that a player will play at Hall of Fame caliber. Player A, who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame based on performance alone, tests positive for Drug A on a foolproof test.

2)  Player B, who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame based on performance alone, tests positive for Drug A on a test that is correct 95% of the time.

3) Player C, who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame based on performance alone, tests positive for Drug A on a test that is correct 75% of the time.

4) Player D, who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame based on performance alone, tests positive for Drug A on a test that is correct 50% of the time.

5) We know that Drug B is guaranteed to improve performance by 10%. Player E, who is 10% better than the Hall of Fame threshold (pretend such a thing exists), tests positive for Drug B on a foolproof test.

6) Player F, who is 50% better than the Hall of Fame threshold, tests positive for Drug B on a foolproof test.

7) Player G, who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame based on performance alone, was convicted – after he retired – of a series of murders he committed while he played.

8) Player H, who is just above the Hall of Fame threshold, was convicted – after he retired – of a series of murders he committed while he played.

9) Player I, who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame based on performance alone, received multiple DUIs while playing.

10) Player J, who is just above the Hall of Fame threshold, received multiple DUIs while playing.

Author’s note: It looks like the poll is calculating the results very strangely, in that a ballot with 4 choices selected counts as 4, not 1, vote.  So don’t mind the percentages.

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